Alcove Capital Partners
Alcove Capital Partners
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Client Education · Updated June 2026

The Year That Shaped
Your Mortgage

The last 12 months in interest rates, the economy, property and the world — and what each moment meant for your repayments.

1

$800,000 loan: what your repayments did

Cash rate
3.60%4.35%
+0.75% since Aug 2025
Est. variable rate
5.39%6.14%
+0.75%
Monthly repayment
$4,487$4,869
+$381/mo · ~$4,577/yr

Illustrative only — based on a representative variable rate of the cash rate plus a constant ~1.79% margin, anchored to a current 6.14% rate on an $800,000 owner-occupier P&I 30-year loan. Your actual rate and repayment will differ.

2

The Timeline

Filter by category, switch layout, and explore the moments that moved your repayments.

View:
Order:
RatesJun 2026

Variable rates ~6.1–6.6%; fixed rates jumped harder

Fixed rates moved earlier and faster on rising bond yields. AUD ~US$0.70. Next RBA decision 16/06 — economists split.

What this meant for you · 2025's cheap fixed deals have largely vanished.
PropertyMay–Jun 2026

Auction clearance rates fall to ~50–51%

Down from ~64% a year ago. Rental vacancies tick up from 1.0% to 1.2% — first rise in ~12 months.

What this meant for you · Less competition at auction; rental market easing slightly.
Policy12/05/2026

2026-27 Budget: negative gearing & CGT reform

From 1 Jul 2027: negative gearing limited to new builds; CGT discount reformed. Existing investors grandfathered.

What this meant for you · Current investors unaffected; future investors face a tougher position on established homes.
Rates05/05/2026

RBA hikes to 4.35% (8–1)

Fully unwinding the 2025 cuts.

What this meant for you · Rates back where they started early 2025 — the cheap window is gone.
Cash rate: 4.35%$800k repayment: $4,869/mo
EconomyApr 2026

Unemployment rises to 4.5%

First real sign higher rates are biting the labour market.

What this meant for you · A cooling job market.
PropertyApr 2026

Home-value growth slows to +0.3% (16-month low)

Sydney and Melbourne turn negative; northern and western capitals stay positive.

What this meant for you · Buyers regaining leverage in the southern capitals.
Global07–08/04/2026

US–Iran ceasefire; oil eases back to ~US$95–106

Some pressure off energy markets.

What this meant for you · Some relief — but the inflation damage was already done.
EconomyMar 2026

Headline inflation hits 4.6%

Well above the 2–3% target band.

What this meant for you · The reason the RBA kept hiking.
Rates17/03/2026

RBA hikes to 4.10% (split 5–4)

Citing sharply higher fuel prices.

What this meant for you · Borrowing capacity tightening further.
Cash rate: 4.10%$800k repayment: $4,740/mo
Global28/02/2026

Israel/US–Iran conflict erupts; Strait of Hormuz closed

~20% of world oil flow disrupted. Oil spikes toward US$100–138/bbl.

What this meant for you · The single event that drove your 2026 rate rises — oil → inflation → rates.
Global20–21/02/2026

US Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs

Replaced with new 15% tariffs. Markets seesaw; bond yields rise.

What this meant for you · Trade uncertainty kept goods inflation sticky.
PolicyFeb 2026

APRA introduces a DTI 'speed limit'

Loans at 6×+ debt-to-income capped at 20% of new lending.

What this meant for you · High-borrowing applicants face an extra hurdle.
Rates03/02/2026

RBA hikes to 3.85% — first increase since 2023

The reversal begins.

What this meant for you · Repayments rising for the first time in over two years.
Cash rate: 3.85%$800k repayment: $4,613/mo
EconomyDec qtr 2025

GDP +0.8% q/q (+2.6% y/y) — fastest in nearly 3 years

A strong economy pushed inflation — and rates — back up.

What this meant for you · Growth was the fuel under the inflation fire.
PropertyFull-year 2025

National home values rose +8.6% in 2025

Best year since 2021. Perth, Brisbane and Darwin led; Sydney and Melbourne lagged.

What this meant for you · Equity grew, but affordability tightened.
Rates09/12/2025

RBA holds at 3.60% — flags upside inflation risk

The Board warns 'risks to inflation have tilted to the upside.'

What this meant for you · A hike is now on the table.
Cash rate: 3.60%$800k repayment: $4,487/mo
Policy05/12/2025

Help to Buy launches

Shared-equity scheme: government takes up to 30–40% equity, deposits from 2%.

What this meant for you · A new low-deposit pathway for eligible lower-income first buyers.
Economy04/11/2025

September-quarter CPI jumps: trimmed mean 3.0%, headline 3.2%

Inflation comes in 'materially higher than expected.' RBA holds at 3.60%.

What this meant for you · The first sign that rate cuts were over.
GlobalSep–Dec 2025

US Federal Reserve cuts three times to 3.50–3.75%

Global bond yields drift lower as the Fed eases.

What this meant for you · This was the cheapest window for fixed rates.
Policy01/10/2025

First Home Guarantee expanded

Income caps removed, place cap abolished, price caps lifted (Sydney/NSW to $1.5m). 5% deposit, no LMI.

What this meant for you · Most first home buyers can now buy with 5% down and skip LMI.
Rates30/09/2025

RBA holds at 3.60%

The easing cycle has stalled. The cash rate sits at its trough.

What this meant for you · Rates steady — and at their cheapest.
Cash rate: 3.60%$800k repayment: $4,487/mo
Rates12/08/2025

RBA cuts to 3.60% — the low point of the cycle

The deepest cut of the year. Variable rates hit their lowest level since 2023.

What this meant for you · The cheapest borrowing window of the cycle.
Cash rate: 3.60%$800k repayment: $4,487/mo
PolicyJul 2025

APRA keeps the 3% serviceability buffer

After its review, APRA leaves the buffer unchanged: lenders must still assess you at your rate + 3%.

What this meant for you · Borrowing capacity remained tight, even with rate cuts.
Rates08/07/2025

RBA holds at 3.85% (6–3 vote)

The Board pauses to watch the inflation data after the May cut.

What this meant for you · A breather — but the easing tone was still in the air.
Cash rate: 3.85%$800k repayment: $4,613/mo
Rates20/05/2025

RBA cuts cash rate to 3.85%

The 2025 easing cycle gets going as the Reserve Bank delivers another cut.

What this meant for you · Borrowing started getting cheaper.
Cash rate: 3.85%$800k repayment: $4,613/mo
3

By the Numbers

Cash rate path

Inflation (CPI) vs RBA target band

2–3% band shaded. Headline drifted from ~2.1% mid-25 to 4.6% Mar-26.

Capital city home values — 2025 annual growth

Source: Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) Home Value Index. Early-2026 growth slowed to +0.3%/mo.

Auction clearance rates

National combined-capitals clearance: ~64% mid-25 → ~51% now.

4

RBA Meeting Calendar

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets eight times a year. Decisions are announced at 2:30pm AEST.

NEXT DECISIONStatement on Monetary Policy

10–11 Aug 2026

Tue 11 Aug 2026 at 2:30pm AEST

48d · 12h · 5m · 25s
2–3 Feb 2026SOMP
Tue 3 Feb 2026
Hike → cash rate 3.85%
16–17 Mar 2026
Tue 17 Mar 2026
Hike → 4.10%
4–5 May 2026SOMP
Tue 5 May 2026
Hike → 4.35%
15–16 Jun 2026
Tue 16 Jun 2026
Upcoming
10–11 Aug 2026SOMP
Tue 11 Aug 2026
Upcoming — next decision
28–29 Sep 2026
Tue 29 Sep 2026
Upcoming
2–3 Nov 2026SOMP
Tue 3 Nov 2026
Upcoming
7–8 Dec 2026
Tue 8 Dec 2026
Upcoming

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. Dates announced by the RBA; 2027 dates to be added when published.

⚠️

Things to consider

  • This page is general information, not financial advice or a forecast — it explains what happened, not what happens next.
  • Interest rate figures are illustrative; your actual rate depends on your lender, loan and circumstances.
  • Property figures are national/capital-city averages — your suburb and property type can differ markedly.
  • Policy measures (schemes, tax changes) have eligibility rules and dates — check your specific situation with us.
5

Where this leaves you

  • Rates have round-tripped: the cash rate is back where it sat in early 2025, and 2025's cheap fixed deals are gone.
  • Borrowing capacity is tighter — the 3% serviceability buffer remains, and APRA's new DTI 'speed limit' adds another hurdle for high-borrowers.
  • The property market has split: Sydney and Melbourne have softened in 2026 while Perth, Brisbane and Darwin stayed strong.
  • Negative gearing and CGT changes apply from 1 Jul 2027 — existing investors are grandfathered, future investors face a tougher position on established homes.

Want to know what this means for your situation?

The headlines are one thing — your numbers are another. Let's talk through where you sit and what your options are.

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